Energy Supply Evolution by 1980
By the period leading up to 1980 , von Neumann anticipates an overall increase in energy availability , driven by both continued conventional fuels and the rise of nuclear power.[:cite[1]{ln=4}], [:cite[1]{ln=5}],...
By the period leading up to 1980 , von Neumann anticipates an overall increase in energy availability , driven by both continued conventional fuels and the rise of nuclear power.[:cite[1]{ln=4}], [:cite[1]{ln=5}], [:cite[2]{ln=6}] 1) Conventional fuels: expanding supply, but price pressure He states that there is a ==“rapidly expanding supply of energy”== and that it is “generally agreed that even conventional, chemical fuel—coal or oil—will be available in increased [quantity].”[:cite[1]{ln=4}], [:cite[1]{ln=5}] At the same time, he notes that “increasing demand tends to keep fuel prices high,” even as other factors reduce delivered power costs.[:cite[3]{ln=2}] 2) Electric power: cheaper through improved generation Even with demand pushing fuel prices upward, he observes that “improvements in methods of generation seem to bring the price of power down.”[:cite[3]{ln=2}] 3) Nuclear power: the key new driver of energy supply evolution pre 1980 Von Neumann calls ==“the advent of nuclear power”== “the most significant event affecting energy,” and identifies the then available controlled source as the “nuclear fission reactor.”[:cite[3]{ln=3}], [:cite[3]{ln=4}] He expects reactor technology to approach competitiveness with conventional (chemical) power sources in the U.S., and suggests it could already be “more than competitive” in many foreign areas due to higher fuel prices abroad.[:cite[3]{ln=5}] He also emphasizes that reactor technology is still young and that, with “a decade of really large scale industrial effort,” reactor economics will “undoubtedly surpass” contemporary performance “by far,” implying substantial improvement in nuclear based energy supply economics within the 1955–1980 window.[:cite[3]{ln=6}], [:cite[3]{ln=7}] 4) Beyond 1980 context: toward extremely cheap (even ‘free’) energy Although framed as longer term (“a few decades hence”), he argues that as nuclear energy utilization becomes more direct—“abandoning the conventional kinks and detours inherited from chemical fuel processes”—==“energy may be free—just like the unmetered air,”== with coal and oil used mainly as chemical feedstocks.[:cite[4]{ln=2}], [:cite[4]{ln=3}] If nuclear developments make energy “unrestrictedly available,” he expects transportation improvements to accelerate even more.[:cite[5]{ln=4}]